New Post, in which, instead of earning money, I decide to crunch cap figures related to the preposterous Sedin twins to L.A. UFA rumor

Here’s why I don’t think the swedish twins in socal rumor makes any sense, especially not Deano sense.

Math.

The twins want $12MM/year. The Kings, after re-signing Johnson and Purcell, then adding $12MM for the Sedins, would be at at least $58MM. $59MM if Hickey makes the team. So we have to dump one big salary. There are exactly three candidates for dumping: Stoll, Frolov and Johnson. (Handzus has a NTC but maybe he could be shipped to a contender and he would be happy.) I would get rid of Stoll, because if you don’t, there is no place for Schenn to play EVER, since both [whichever Sedin is a center] and Kopitar would be your 1 and 2 centers for the next decade. So let’s say we dump Stoll for picks. Now we’re under the cap. And this is your Los Angeles Kings for 2009-2010:

Twin1/Twin2/Moller

Frolov/Kopitar/Williams

Purcell/Lewis/Brown

Cliche/Handzus/Simmonds

Johnson/Doughty

Quincey/Greene

Hickey/SOD

Drewiske

Quick

Ersberg

Not a bad line-up. However:

Now it’s next summer, June 30, 2010. The cap IS coming down. To around $50MM, maybe lower. The Kings are at $50MM now, but they have to re-sign Frolov, Cliche, Lewis, Quincey and Quick. Conservatively, that’s 5, 1, 1.5, 3 and 3MM. $13.5MM. Add that to $50MM, you’ve got $63.5MM. You’re $13.5MM over the cap.

Oops.

Now, Lombardi will have seen this coming a mile away. And he will conclude, in order not to be completely f***ed in 2010-2011, he’s going to have to have shed a bunch of salary during 2009-2010. Three players with decent salaries. Frolov is obvious, Johnson also…and…I don’t know…who’s left? We already dealt Stoll in the summer of ’09, and Williams and Handzus are ear-marked for jettisoning the following season (see The Doughty/Moller/Simmonds Nightmare of 2011, below). So I guess you dump Greene and hope that Teubert is ready to take his place.

Now you’re back under the cap, and your 2010-2011 Los Angeles Kings look like this:

Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller

Purcell/Kopitar/Williams

Clifford/Schenn/Brown

Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds

Drewiske/Doughty

Quincey/Voynov

Hickey/Teubert

Quick

Bernier

Also not bad. However:

Now it’s summer of 2011, two years from now. Moller, Simmonds and Doughty are RFA. That’s another $9-10MM in cap space you need to create, at least. And if the twins don’t stink, Moller may be a thirty (or, worse, forty) goal scorer by then. But let’s be conservative. Call it $10MM of space we need to clear. 75% of that we clear by because Handzus and Williams are off the books as UFAs (probably traded for picks at the previous deadline, unless of course we’re on a cup run). So figure you lose those guys and re-sign the three kids and your cap goes up another three million.

And someone has to go. Who? Do you let one of Moller or Simmonds walk? I would cry. Purcell is affordable, since he will still be playing on the contract he gets this summer (unless he only signs for two years, in which case, he’ll be a UFA I think). Maybe you don’t re-sign Purcell (or trade, whatever) and trade another defenseman. Who’s expendable? Who knows. Say it’s Drewiske.

So, here’s your 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings:

Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller

Wudrick/Kopitar/Loktionov

Clifford/Schenn/Brown

someone cheap/Lewis/Simmonds

Quincey/Doughty

Hickey/Teubert

Voynov/someone cheap

Quick

Bernier

Could be a great team. And all you have to do is:

Deal Stoll now. Deal Frolov, Johnson and Greene before next season’s trade deadline. Deal Handzus, Williams, Purcell and Drewiske before the deadline of 2010-11. Or else just let them all walk (well, not Drewiske, who will probably still be under contract).

Oh, and all these trades will be for picks and prospects, because we won’t be able to take any salary back. So it will literally be trade after trade after trade of “why did we just give up [core player x] for a measly 2nd round pick?”

Answer: because we’ll be over a barrel.

[Hilarious bonus irony: it used to be that teams in playoff contention picked up a few pieces to gear up for the playoffs, and teams that were out of contention dumped salary; NOW, we'll be dumping some of our best players exactly at the time we're gearing up for the playoffs. We'll be fighting for home ice advantage in the post-season, and we'll be SELLERS? How much fun will that be?]

And when Schenn, Loktionov, Voynov, Hickey and Teubert come up for contracts, and the Sedins are literally unmovable because of their huge contracts with 7 years left on them, you have absolutely no choice but to deal…

…Kopitar and Brown.

This is why I think it’s a bad idea.