In which I evaluate my preseason targets for individual goals-for

Before the season started, I said I thought the Kings needed to score 250 goals in order to make the playoffs. The Kings are almost exactly on course to reach the 250 plateau. The last time I looked at the numbers was around game 18. Since then, it’s interesting to note that Kopitar has scored but one measly goal. He was projecting to around 70 goals; now he’s projecting to 35. Interestingly, the projected underage from Moller, Lewis and Purcell (-20) has been made up by Parse and Richardson (+20). The combined projected underages of Williams, Brown and Frolov (-27) is canceled out by the combined overages of Jones, Doughty, Stoll and Simmonds (+29).

Goals36 = goals after 36 games.

Target36 = target prorated to 36 games.

Target82 = original target for full season.

 
  • DougS

    Except for the guys who didn’t make the team out of camp, your individual projections are pretty much right there except for Frolov, and why he isn’t putting together a strong season in his UFA year is a puzzle to me.

    One reason I didn’t sweat Kopitar’s goal-scoring drought was that he was bound to revert to the mean somewhat sooner or later. Even if Smyth had stayed healthy, Kopi would have tailed off a bit. I think 35 goals/year is an entirely reasonable projection for him — and lo, that’s about where he is!

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