With Sunday’s Results, the Kings PLayoff Chances Tick Up 1.1%

…to 78%. Numbers per SportsClubStats (link below). Essentially, what the site does is, they randomly generate results for the rest of the season, running millions of complete season simulations starting from the standings today, and then calculate the likelihood of different finishes in final standings for each team. They also report the effect that each conference game has on other teams. Tonight, Detroit and Vancouver both lost, which was the best possible outcome (statistically) for the Kings.

As of tonight, the point threshold for making the playoffs (in 95% of the simulations) is 96 points. At 92 points, it’s 50/50.

Los Angeles Kings Playoff Chances – Sports Club Stats.


  9 comments for “With Sunday’s Results, the Kings PLayoff Chances Tick Up 1.1%

  1. Trekker315
    December 21, 2009 at 9:10 AM

    hey Kwisp…i’d like to hear your take on this new guy the Kings signed…

  2. quisp
    December 21, 2009 at 10:13 AM

    I have never seen him play. The comparable seems to be Teubert. He’s a year older than Teubert, about ten pounds heavier and two inches shorter. He’s a left shot (Teubert is a right shot). His offensive numbers were roughly the same as Teubert’s last season, and this season he’s taken a huge leap forward, on pace for 80-something points, whereas Teubert is on pace for 40-something. Both are “nasty”/”snarly” in that Lombardi mode. Since he is 20 years old, I believe he is eligible to play in Manchester immediately. Either way, I expect he and Teubert will both join Manchester after their junior seasons are finished. Although my expectation is that Muzzin will finish his junior season and then join the Monarchs, it’s possible he could actually see some time in L.A. this year.

    I expect when the signing is announced we will be told it’s a depth signing, as of course it is. Undoubtedly, people will speculate that the Kings sooner or later will have to start dealing away some of their prospects, and with the possibility of a playoff appearance this year it shouldn’t be too hard to put together several juicy rumors regarding Hickey/Voynov/Teubert/Muzzin.

    If you look at the Kings d longterm:

    Crusty old defensive dudes: Scuderi, Greene (in training: Drewiske)
    mobile offensive minded guys: Doughty, Jones (in training: Hickey, Voynov, Martinez)
    offensive/nasty hybrid: Johnson (in training: Teubert, Muzzin)

    If you assume that Scuderi, Greene and Doughty have spots on the team (safe assumption), and that Johnson probably does — that leaves three spots for Drewiske, Voynov, Hickey, Martinez, Teubert and Muzzin. (assume Jones can be retained if needed depending on how everything else shakes out)

    I would say one of Voynov, Hickey and Martinez, and one of Drewiske, Teubert and Muzzin could be dealt this year without really sacrificing anything in terms of depth.

    Or, think of it this way: if you think that the Kings could have a d with all of Voynov, Hickey, Teubert and Muzzin, that means that two of Scuderi, Greene, Johnson or Doughty would have to be dealt.

    As they say, something’s gotta give. It’s reasonable to expect some of it to “give” before the trade deadline.

  3. December 21, 2009 at 6:23 PM

    I’m not sure I quite agree with this speculation, or with the angle of it, I should say. With so many D prospects in the system who are so young — i.e. still in juniors or rookie AHLers — there’s NO HURRY to rush up guys like Hickey, Voynov, Martinez, Teubert, Muzzin, Campbell, et al. We still have at least another year or 2 before things will likely start to get crowded at the top. And you don’t trade anyone simply because you have an abundance of riches. The trade deadline question will not be “Who should we get rid of?” but “What do we need?” If we’re in the playoff picture this year and we have an obvious need for, say, an elite scorer who will most likely contribute to a Cup run (and sign with us for a few more years), then maybe you look at one or two of these guys as part of a trade package, depending on what the other team wants. But even then, it’s got to be a pretty sure thing that what we’re getting in return is a “safe bet” to make a significant impact for us. There’s no way that DL will trade away prospects or other young guys that he’s drafted merely to acquire someone who is available and *might* help out a little bit. It’s all going to depend on how strong we are going into the playoffs, and then what our identified needs are. If we’re just squeaking by we’re not gonna depart with a Voynov, Hickey or Teubert, just so we can win a game or two in the first round before we’re eliminated. I don’t think DL smokes from that pipe. (But then again, who knows? I mean, when was the last time one of his teams was playoff-bound?) Let’s see where we’re at come trade deadline time. Then, and only then, is it true that “something’s gotta give.” In my opinion, anyway.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that, despite what we might think of our own prospects, they haven’t yet shown what they can do at the NHL level. It’s very unlikely that another team will covet any of these guys as much as we do. Guys like Frolov, Moller, Purcell, Ersberg, Richardson, etc. (not one of them a D-man) have shown, more or less, what they have to offer. So they’re just as likely to be part of a package as one of our D prospects.

    One thing for sure (I would expect)… If we’re in good shape playoff-wise by the trade deadline this year, I doubt that ownership will be pressing for a big trade, however sexy that might seem. We will have already exceeded expectations, and will have yet another season of improvement to look forward to next year. DL can stay at his grindstone, with nobody breathing down his neck.

    Next year, however, will be another matter altogether.

    I’m sorry if this all sounds like hooey. I’m currently stoned out of my mind. I just love that we’re playing well enough that I can finally begin to fantasize about this shit.

  4. quisp
    December 21, 2009 at 8:36 PM

    First of all, I totally agree with you on all points, strangely. I’m not advocating for a trade, and I don’t want to lose any of our blue-chip prospects. Mostly, I’m just looking at the math. I agree the window is a couple of years away, but it won’t happen all at once. It will happen in increments, fits and starts. For instance, Voynov. He’s already getting antsy playing in Manchester, and DL has to have in the back of his mind that the kid could bolt to Russia in a heartbeat. Lombardi isn’t going to be held hostage by that, of course, but it has to be part of his calculus, especially since, right now, Voynov is panning out better than Hickey. (I expect that to change; but maybe it won’t.) That, combined with the fact that we do need another d-man on the point of the power play, makes me think that Voynov may get a shot sooner rather than later. And when players start getting called up, dominoes begin to fall (or can begin to).

    And of course, Doughty notwithstanding, defensemen usually don’t mature until their early/mid-twenties. So that’s another reason for me to agree with you.

    I guess the other thing I keep thinking is that Lombardi hasn’t traded ANY of his prospects yet. Okay, O’Sullivan. But none of his picks. How long can that continue to be true?

  5. DougS
    December 21, 2009 at 11:12 PM

    Remember, gentlemen, that the catalyst might be Frolov. If Lombardi decides that he can’t (or won’t) re-sign Frolov, Frolov ought to be shipped off fairly soon. While Fro could be fobbed off as a rental for more prospects or picks, I think it’s more likely that Lombardi will try to package him with a prospect or pick for a top-6 forward.

    • quisp
      December 22, 2009 at 12:51 AM

      Yes. Although in lieu of the “Frolov for prospects/picks” scenario, I would think Frolov for 3rd line LW with playoff experience (e.g. Holmstrom) is more likely. When it comes down to “Frolov plus x and prospect y for a top-six forward” I wonder who’s on Lombardi’s short list.

      • DougS
        December 22, 2009 at 2:46 PM

        True. I don’t see Lombardi as enthusiastic about rental-type (i.e., someone you only expect to have for 1/2 a season, or someone who’s too old to be counted on beyond the end of this season) acquisitions, but maybe things are different now that the Kings are legit playoff contenders.

        I am, however, interested by how much other teams are willing to give up for Frolov, either in trade or on the UFA market. My experience following sports in general is that for a player at Fro’s level, there is often someone who is willing to overvalue him.

  6. December 22, 2009 at 6:25 PM

    Now that I think of it, I’m not sure that Fro is a good example here. Come trade deadline, if DL doesn’t intend to re-sign him, or if Fro’s free agency plans are undecided, then we definitely trade him, whether or not we’re in the playoff hunt. What we look for in return, however, WILL depend on whether or not we’re in the playoff hunt. So we’d be smart to wait until the deadline, and see where we’re at and what we need, before we pull the switch on this guy (IF we pull the switch on this guy).

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