Your manifesto is missing something…


(I’ll give you a hint: three way tie.)

Kings playoff scenario manifesto « LA Kings Insider

If you want to go (way, way) more in depth, Kings communications-staff guru Jeremy Zager has passed along the following breakdown of exactly what could happen on Thursday, Friday and Saturday and what it means for the Kings. Read carefully. The exam will be at noon. No cheat sheets.

[…] If the Kings win in a shootout Thursday vs. San Jose – this wouldn’t clinch the 7th seed. Here’s why: This would give the Kings 95 points and mean the Sharks could only get a maximum of 95 points. The Kings would still have 34 ROWs and San Jose could still potentially get 34 ROW. The next tie-breaker is head-to-head points. In this scenario the Kings would have 7 head-to-head points (3-1-1) and the Sharks would have 5 head-to-head points (2-2-1). San Jose could then win in regulation Saturday to force the third tie-breaker.

But not necessarily (I’ll explain in a second).

Both teams would now have 34 ROWs and 7 head-to-head points (both teams would be 3-2-1 vs. each other). The third tie-breaker is goal differential. Right now the Kings are a +17 and San Jose is a +16. If the Kings win in a shootout Thursday the Kings would then be a +18, while San Jose would be +15. Meaning the Sharks would have to win in regulation Saturday by two-or-more goals. So here is the bottom line if the Kings win a shootout Thursday vs. San Jose: The only way the Sharks could overtake the Kings is to win in regulation Saturday by at least two goals.

Let’s use the manifesto’s scenario

  • Kings win in a shoot-out tonight against San Jose.
  • Kings would have 95 points.
  • Sharks would have 93 points. And one fewer ROW.

So far so good

  • Sharks win in regulation in the last game.
  • Sharks and Kings are tied at 95 points.
  • Sharks and Kings are tied with 34 ROWs.
  • Sharks and Kings are tied in the head-to-head with 7 points each.
  • So they proceed to the next tie breaker, goal-differential…

Maybe. Maybe not.

That depends on PHOENIX

Consider this:

  • Imagine that everything in the manifesto’s scenario occurs. The Kings and Sharks are knotted up at 95 points, 34 ROW and 7 points head-to-head.
  • Phoenix plays in St. Louis on Friday and in Minnesota on Saturday.
  • Phoenix currently has 93 points and 34 ROWs, just like the Kings.
  • If Phoenix loses one of its two games in regulation, and wins the other in a shoot-out (or, for that matter, if they lose both games in OT or SO), they will end up with 95 points and 34 ROW…

…just like the Kings and Sharks

  • In a three-way tie, in which all three teams are tied in ROWs, the next tie-breaker is points earned in games played among the tied teams. 
  • Now, San Jose and the Kings would be, in this scenario, tied with each other in their own little season series, each having earned 7 points. But:
  • The Kings won their season series against Phoenix, 8 points to 7. And:
  • The Coyotes destroyed the Sharks in their season series, 9 points to 4. So:

In the head-to-head-to-head

  • The Kings earned 15 points (8 + 7), the Coyotes earned 16 points (9 + 7) and the Sharks earned 11 points (7 + 4).
  • So the Coyotes would take 3rd (1st in the Pacific), the Kings would take 7th, and the Sharks would take 8th.

  4 comments for “Your manifesto is missing something…

  1. sstephen17
    April 5, 2012 at 11:20 AM

    Ouch, that would suck if it ends in a three-way tie and the Kings lose the division crown, even though they beat Phoenix head-to-head.

  2. Doughty99
    April 5, 2012 at 4:02 PM

    This is a stupid system, right? How does it make sense that the Kings lose the division despite beating Phx and tying SJ in the respective season series?

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