Tuesday Logjam Report

Points-Blown Standings have their own page now, and have been updated. See the menu above.

Last Night

  • The Kings arrived at 93 points.
  • 93 points is good enough to make the playoffs in 2/3 of sportsclubstats’ several million simulations of the last week of the season.
  • 94 points (one more point out of their last two games) is good enough to make the playoffs (according to SCS) in 95% of the simulations.
  • 95 points (two more points) is good enough in 99.8% of the simulations.

Tonight

  • SJS@DAL
  • PHX@CBJ

What We Want: Sharks

  • If the Sharks lose in regulation, they will stay 3 points behind the Kings (yay), but more importantly:
  • The Kings would stay two ROW (regulation or OT wins) ahead of the Sharks. This would mean:
  • Even if the Sharks were to sweep the weekend against the Kings, the best they could do is pull even with the Kings in ROWs.
  • Here’s a chart of the Kings/Sharks possibilities. The rows represent the different possible outcomes of tonight’s Sharks/Stars game (Sharks win or OT win, Sharks  SO win, Sharks OTL or SOL, Sharks loss in regulation). The columns represent the outcomes of the two Kings/Sharks games, from the Kings’ point-of-view (Kings win both in regulation, Kings win one in regulation and one in OT/SO, Kings win both in OT, etc.).
  • The possible outcomes of Sharks/Kings final standings positions are color-coded. Purple means Kings prevail; Teal means Sharks prevail. “PTS” mean the team prevails by virtue of having a higher point-total; “ROW” means the team prevails in the ROW tie-breaker; “SS” means the team prevails in the season-series tie-breaker; “GD” means they go to the “goal-differential” tie-breaker, the outcome of which depends obviously on the scores of the remaining games.

What We Want: Stars

  • Dallas has Nashville and St. Louis after San Jose. They can, at best, reach 95 points.
  • If they do that (unlikely), the Kings would need to get to 96, since the Stars have a one ROW edge on the Kings right now and they would probably maintain it with those three wins.
  • It’s probably the most sane to root for Dallas tonight to beat San Jose and then root against them to drop at least one of their last two games (Preds and Blues).

What We Want: Coyotes

  • Oh, we just want them to lose.

Oh, and

  • There is a possibility of a three or even four-way tie between/among LAK, SJS, PHX and DAL. That gets very complicated and interesting. We’ll cross that river when the bridge is built.
 

  18 comments for “Tuesday Logjam Report

  1. April 3, 2012 at 1:37 PM

    Hmm I did a spread sheet scenario and concluded that it would be better for San jose to win tonight.  I get yours above but mine was presumed on worst case scenario that Dallas, Phoenix and San Jose win there last two games.  So assuming that happens then if SJ wins tonight the best Dallas could do is tie LA by beating both NASH and StL.  If that were to happen then LA just needs 1 pt out of the next two games vs SJ.  We should be able to get a Bettman point out of a team like San Jose who wouldn’t really have anything to lose by  going to OT against LA.  

    • April 3, 2012 at 2:12 PM

      I think the Sharks have an incentive not to hand out Bettman points to the Kings. I appreciate your “worst case” outlook (as I generally operate from there).

      • April 3, 2012 at 5:57 PM

        Well again assuming my scenario that Sharks win tonight they only need 2 more  pts so either 1 win vs LA or take both games to OT to get a Bettman pt in each.  So yeah they wouldn’t give the Kings a pt but from their perspective all they need is to get to OT in each of those games vs LA.  

  2. counterpart20
    April 3, 2012 at 3:06 PM

    so what comes after GD? Is it coinflip? That would be disastrous

    There’s a non-zero chance that SJ beats DAL by 1 or 2, loses in a SO, then beats LA by the right amount of goals to equalize GD.

    Ugh

    • April 3, 2012 at 3:38 PM

       after goal-differential there is no defined tie-breaker, so bettman would have to wing it. I assume he would choose to have a single-elimination tie-breaker game (assuming it’s two teams only — not three or four — who are tied). It would be hugely problematic to introduce a new tie-breaker rule after the fact.

      • Heinze57
        April 3, 2012 at 6:09 PM

        Betthole has already proven he has no qualms making retroactive rule changes, even regarding those with the most important playoff implications.
        *cough*, “No Goal!”, *cough*, *cough*.

      • April 3, 2012 at 8:18 PM

         More likely it’d be conference or divisional record tiebreakers, a la the NFL. Probably divisional first.

  3. Visarut06
    April 3, 2012 at 7:37 PM

    Thanks

  4. April 3, 2012 at 9:40 PM

    I guess it was too much to ask for the Coyotes to lose…Thanks JMFJ… here’s to sweeping the sharks in the home and home and taking the division!!!!

    GO KINGS GO!

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