With the Stars’ loss tonight, the Kings’ magic number is 1

  • Dallas has 89 points. They can reach 93 points by winning their last two games (against Nashville and St. Louis).
  • The Kings have 93 points.
  • If the Kings earn one point in either of their last two games, they make the playoffs by guaranteeing they will finish higher than Dallas.
  • Dallas might still be able to top the Sharks or Coyotes and sneak in, but the Kings would be out of reach for them.

But what if the Kings lose both games in regulation?

  • Kings would have 93 points.
  • Sharks would have 96.
  • Dallas could win both and make it to 93. They would prevail in the ROW tie-breaker with the Kings.
  • Phoenix (currently at 93 points), would need only a point in their last two games to rise above the Kings.
  • If the Coyotes also lost their remaining games in regulation, the Kings would prevail in the season series tie-breaker.

So…

  • Either the Kings need to earn one measly point, or:
  • Dallas needs to blow one measly point.
  • To put it another way, if the Kings lose out (0-2-0), and the Stars win out (2-0-0), the Kings don’t make it. Otherwise, they do.

Bonus tie-breaker stuff

  • If Dallas wins both games, and the Kings and Phoenix both lose both games, all three teams would be tied at 93 points. In that case, Dallas would prevail over the Kings and Yotes in the ROW tie-breaker and the Kings would prevail over Phoenix in the season-series tie-breaker, so Phoenix would be the odd man out.
  • It’s too bad Dallas has that one extra ROW, because if those three teams ended up tied in points and in ROWs, the head-to-head would become (per the tie-breaker rules) head-to-head-to-head (i.e. most points earned in games among the three tied teams). In that scenario, Dallas (13 points) would have been the odd man out, and the Kings and Coyotes (16 points each) would have proceeded to goal-differential to break their tie.
  • The Kings currently have a 13 goal lead over Phoenix in goal-differential, so unless they were blown out by San Jose on a level unprecedented in human history, the Kings would prevail in that tie-breaker, in that alternate reality.

Blog Parrot Watch

  • Having just posted this (9:55PM), I checked my very own “Kings Hive Mind” page and found that Rich Hammond wrote nearly exactly the same post an hour earlier, with the same language and most of the same conclusions. I guess I should read before I write. (Silver lining: at least the Hive Mind page works.)

 

 
  • angelofdeath

    I was hoping we could clinch the division this Thursday, but the Blue Jackets didn’t help… 

  • https://openid.aol.com/opaque/6920da0a-7e17-11e1-b259-000bcdcb8a73 scvking

    Quisp:

    Love the new site!
    Yes, a unlikely set of events is all that lies between the Kings and the playoffs. 
    My quandry is this—the Kings have not handled prosperity all that well in the last few years.  They seem to forget what makes them good once they reach a certain level. 
    do you think it is best for them to gain the confidence of finishing first in the division and the third seed (even knowing that success has not been all that good for them) or is it better for them to finsih in the seventh or eighth spot and continue with the desperation frame of mind that they sometimes thrive in?

    This team is young and immature at times. Adversity gets their attention (as it does most of us, right?).  But, is there a certain kind of accomplishment that allows them to find greater success (as in a division championship?).

    Right now the Kings seems hungry, unafraid and almost fearless, for the first time.  I would hate to see that change.  But, success breeds success, or so they say.

    • DougS

      Speaking for myself, I would rather not see this team limp into the playoffs. I understand your point about how they haven’t handled high expectations well, but I would add that we’ve also seen them fall into deep funks when things have started to break against them. So I think entering on a high note is much preferable.

      Winning the Division after everything that the team has been through this season would be a great accomplishment. But they would/will also win it by only a nose, and have the weakest regular-season record of the three Western Division champs. So they would also have no cause to lose their heads and get too full of themselves.

      • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

        It’s hard to root against winning the division, mostly because I think it really is an accomplishment. I don’t really have a preference in first round opponent. Chi would be interesting. Van would be emotional. Stl…I have no idea. 

        • DougS

          Let’s not rule out Detroit in the first round, either. They’re trending flat-down over the last 10 games and Chicago could pass them. Considering that they’re showing weakness right now, they could be the opponent we want if the Kings hold onto the #3 seed.

          • Garrett79

            The Kings didn’t fare very well against even the hobbled Red Wings this season, but they dominated Chicago.

            I’m not sure it matters, but if you’re deciding who you wanna play based on how you played those teams this season, the Kings want the Blackhawks in the first round.

            But I always bear in mind that in 1993 the Kings went 2-7 against Vancouver in the regular season but 4-2 against them in the playoffs.

            • sstephen17

              I too prefer Chicago.  I’d hate to play Detroit in the first.

            • https://twitter.com/RobertJFTC Robert P

              The idea of playing Detroit in the first round is giving me a daymare.

            • Doogx

              Not going to put all my money on the proposition that Detroit would be the preferable opponent. But I am saying that if you’re concerned about momentum going into the playoffs,  playing sub-.500 hockey has got to be a negative indicator, no matter what other factors are in play.

              The Hawks, on the other hand, seem to have regained their hotness, with only 1 regulation loss in their last 10.

      • http://www.facebook.com/people/Stephen-Stephenson/1625465424 Stephen Stephenson

        I too would really like to see them win the division simply by winning the last two games of the season.  Expectations aside, it would mean the Kings go into the playoffs on a roll, which IMO is more important than home ice or who you play.  If I’m not mistaken, at this point the Kings can play any of the top six teams in the conference (except whoever wins the Pacific and #3 seed).  Regardless of the opponent, I’d want the Kings to be firing on all cylinders.

        • sstephen17

          Oops, forgot to create a profile and logged in with Facebook instead.

      • http://profile.yahoo.com/4F57WHUTL6TZYJUMH55JHRXGLY KEVIN

        Winning the Division is important because it is the last year there will be a Pacific Division champion and it’s only fitting that the team from the ’67 expansion hangs that flag in our rafters!

        • Garrett79

           How is this the last year there will be a Pacific Division champion?

          You do know that the re-alignment the NHL proposed with four conferences isn’t happening, right?

          • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

            For some reason I still feel like some version of the new format is in our future. 

  • ForumFan

    Quisp,

    You have been quiet lately on JFTC and now I can see why. Really like your new site. Have it bookmarked and will be checking in frequently.

    Meanwhile, in this wild ride of a season for the Kings, I’m still not feeling very confident that we will make the playoffs. It isn’t hard to imagine ending the season with double losses to SJ. Just want a win on Thursday then I don’t care how the match ups shape up.

    I think DS has done a great job so far. I was skeptical when the change was made as to whether he was the right person. It’s remarkable that, as well as the team as done since his arrival, we are still not assured of a playoff spot. That’s a vivid reminder of how bleak our prospects actually were at the time.

    ForumFan

    • ForumFan

      oops…

      *sceptical
      *has

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/4F57WHUTL6TZYJUMH55JHRXGLY KEVIN

    Quicker getting the nod for the Vezina over @ NHL.com
    Sorry for no link not sure how it works here.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/ZU4MAWHIINCMAZNCKMN7B3KS3M Ron

    That one extra Dallas ROW is the one that got Terry Murray fired.

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