How many prospects make it? How long does it take?

Short version:

Two or three out of every ten picks will turn into a viable roster player. One, maaaybe two, of those will be someone special. And it takes two or three years from the draft for the player to develop, sometimes less, sometimes more.

Long version:

Class of 2000 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Alex Frolov (R1/20) — full time after two years.
  • Andreas Lilja (R2/54) — cup of coffee after one year; full time after two.
  • Lubomir Visnovsky (R4/118) — made Kings that year.
  • Eight other picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in the first three rounds: Yanick Lehoux (R3/86).
  • Batting average: 3/11 = 27%
  • Top four rounds: 3/4 = 75%
  • High value players: Visnovsky, Frolov.
  • Effect on 2012 Kings: Visnovsky (traded for Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll).

Class of 2001 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Dave Steckel (R1/30) — Cup of coffee with Washington after four years; full time after six.
  • Mike Cammalleri (R2/49) — cup of coffee after two years; full time after four (might have been three, but for the lock-out).
  • Jaroslav Bednar (R2/51) — drafted at age 24, played 101 NHL games, beginning with the Kings that fall, and following that two seasons in Florida.
  • Cristobal Huet (R7/214) — drafted at age 25; cup of coffee after one year; full time after two.
  • Seven other picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in the first three rounds: Jens Karlsson (R1/18), Henrik Juntunen (R3/83).
  • Batting average: 4/11 = 36%
  • Top four rounds: 3/5 = 60%
  • High value players: Mike Cammalleri.
  • Effect on 2012 Kings: Cammalleri (traded for pick that became Colten Teubert, who in turn was traded for Dustin Penner).

Class of 2002 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Eleven picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in the first three rounds: Denis Grebeshkov (R1/18), Sergei Anshakov (R2/50), Petr Kanko (R3/66).
  • Batting average: 0/11 = 0%
  • High value players: none.
  • Effect on 2012 Kings: none.

Class of 2003 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Dustin Brown (R1/13) — made the Kings his draft year.
  • Brian Boyle (R1/26) — cup of coffee after four years, full time with Rangers after six.
  • Eight other picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in the top three rounds: Jeff Tambellini (R1/27), Konstantin Pushkarev (R2/44), Ryan Munce (R3/82).
  • Batting average: 2/10 = 20%
  • Top four rounds: 2/5 = 40%
  • High value players / Effect on 2012: Dustin Brown.

Class of 2004 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Scott Parse (R6/174) — full time after 5 years.
  • Eight other picks that did not pan out.
  • Busts in the top three rounds: Lauri Tukonen (R1/11), Paul Baier (R3/95).
  • Batting average: 1/9 = 11%
  • Top four rounds: 0/3 = 0%
  • High Value Players / Effect on 2012: none.

Class of 2005 (GM Dave Taylor)

  • Anze Kopitar (R1/11) — full time after one year.
  • Jonathan Quick (R3/72) — cup of coffee after two years; full time after three.
  • Busts in the top three rounds: Dany Roussin (R2/50), TJ Fast (R2/60).
  • Batting average: 2/8 = 25%
  • top four rounds: 2/4 = 50%
  • High value players / Effect on 2012: Kopitar and Quick.

Class of 2006 (GM Dean Lombardi)

  • Jonathan Bernier (R1/11) — cup of coffee after one year; full time after four.
  • Trevor Lewis (R1/17) — cup of coffee after two years; full time after four.
  • Five picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in top three rounds: Joey Ryan (R2/48).
  • Batting Average: 2 of 9 … 4 of 9 (range) = 22%-44% (depending on Zatkoff and Holloway)
  • Top four rounds: 2 of 6 … 4 of 6 (range) = 33%-66% (depending on Zatkoff and Holloway)
  • Jury Still Out: Jeff Zatkoff (R3/74), Bud Holloway (R3/86).
  • High value players / Effect on 2012: Bernier and Lewis.

Class of 2007 (GM Dean Lombardi)

  • Thomas Hickey (R1/4)
  • Oscar Moller (R2/52) — cup of coffee after one year.
  • Wayne Simmonds (R2/61) — full time after one year.
  • Alec Martinez (R4/95) — cup of coffee after two years; full time after three.
  • Dwight King (R4/109) — cup of coffee after three years; full time after four.
  • Four other picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in top three rounds: Bryan Cameron (R3/84)
  • Jury Still Out: Thomas Hickey, Oscar Moller
  • Batting Average: 3 of 10 … 5 of 10 (range) = 30%-50% (depending on Hickey and Moller)
  • Top four rounds: 3 of 6 … 5 of 6 (range) =  50%-83% (depending on Hickey and Moller)
  • High Value Players / Effect on 2012 Kings: Martinez; King; Simmonds (traded to Philly for Mike Richards).

Class of 2008 (GM Dean Lombardi)

  • Drew Doughty (R1/2) — made Kings his draft year.
  • Slava Voynov (R2/32) — full time after three years.
  • Andrei Loktionov (R5/123) — cup of coffee after two years.
  • Four other picks that didn’t pan out.
  • Busts in top three rounds: Colten Teubert (R1/13), Geordie Wudrick (R3/88)
  • Jury Still Out: Robbie Czarnik (R3/63), Andrew Campbell (R3/74)
  • Batting average: 3 of 9 … 5 of 9 (range) = 33%-56% (depending on Czarnik and Campbell)
  • Top four rounds: 2 of 6 … 4 of 6 (range) = 33%-66% (depending on Czarnik and Campbell)
  • High Value Players / Effect on 2012 Kings: Doughty, Voynov, Loktionov; Teubert (traded to Oilers for Dustin Penner).

Class of 2009 (GM Dean Lombardi)

  • Brayden Schenn (R1/5) — cup of coffee after one year; full time in Philly after two.
  • Kyle Clifford (R2/35) — made team full time after one year.
  • Jordan Nolan (R7/186) — full time after two years.
  • Jury Still Out: Nic Deslauriers (R3/84), J-F Berube (R4/95), Linden Vey (R4/96), Brandon Kozun (R6/179), Nic Dowd (R7/198).
    Batting average: too soon to tell.
    Top four rounds: at least 50%.
  • High Value Players / Effect on 2012 Kings: Schenn (traded to Philly for Mike Richards); Clifford; Nolan.

And now, chart fun:

Here we have each draft year from 2000-2009 (after that, it’s too soon to say much about the success or failure of various picks). The columns indicate number of picks, “batting average” in terms of viable NHL players per total number of picks that year, “batting average” for the first four rounds only, number of subjectively-determined (by me) “A+” selections, the names and rounds of those players, the number of years it took for said A+ picks to arrive in the NHL full-time (dev1, dev2, dev3 — three columns to allow for up to three A+ picks in any given year), and finally, the effect of that year’s draft on the 2012 Stanley Cup winning roster.

The average time it took to ripen those A+ picks? 2.2 years. Twenty-three percent of the picks from 2000-2009 yielded an NHL roster player for the Kings. Thirty-nine percent of picks in the top four rounds. Overall, I labeled 17 of the picks “A+”, out of a total of 98 picks. That comes to 17%. Somewhere between 1/5 and 1/6.

So, I guess you can figure on one pick in six turning into a something special, and it will take that player roughly two years to make the big club. On average. Three players made the team three months after being drafted, three more after one year, three after two years, four after three years, and four after four years.

The Kings have six, maybe seven, picks in this weekend’s draft, depending on whether the Jackets opt to take the Kings’ 1st rounder this year or next.

#picks % 1-4% A+ player (round) dev1 dev2 dev3 2012
2000 11 27% 75% 2 Frolov (1), Visnovsky (4) 2 0   Stoll, Greene
2001 11 36% 60% 1 Cammalleri (2) 4     Penner
2002 11 0% 0% 0          
2003 10 20% 40% 1 Brown (1) 0     Brown
2004 9 11% 0% 0          
2005 8 25% 50% 2 Kopitar (1), Quick (3) 1 3   Kopitar, Quick
2006 9 22% 33% 2 Bernier (1), Lewis (1) 4 4   Bernier, Lewis
2007 10 30% 50% 3 Simmonds (2), Martinez (4), King (4) 1 3 4 Richards, Martinez, King
2008 9 33% 33% 3 Doughty (1), Voynov (2), Loktionov (5) 0 3 3 Doughty, Voynov, Loktionov
2009 10 30% 50% 3 Schenn (1), Clifford (2), Nolan (7) 2 1 2 Richards, Clifford, Nolan
 
  • bhpdx

    …..but is the average in all organizations? …..one would Detroit has a higher hit rate.

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      they don’t though. over the same period: Kronwall (2000), Hudler, Filppula (2002), Franzen (2004), Abdelkader, Helm (2005). That’s 78 picks (I counted quickly; could be off +- 1 or 2). 6 out of 78 is 7.6%

      • Neil Mattson

        Quincey, Kindl, Ericsson, Smith, Nyquist, Emmerton, Mursak…off the top of my head.

        • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

          Yeah, and Fleishmann (sp), Howard, etc.. I was trying to narrow it to A+ picks that are still with the team. Quincey is a special case because he was lost to waivers and then re-acquired, so there isn’t a direct line from draft to current lineup.

          • Neil Mattson

            I should read the whole post more thoroughly before commenting…I laughed when reading your definition of A+, because Detroit just does’nt get those very often :) So Detroit’s batting average will be super low as compared to rest of the league.

            • Neil Mattson

              and they take waaaay longer to develope players than any other team in the league. 2.2 years is crazy!!