- Odds at 55 points: 98-99%.
- Odds at 54 points: 90% or better.
- Odds at 53 points: 75% or better.
- Odds at 52 points: coin flip.
- Odds at 51 points: 1:4, 1:5, around there. Possible, but not likely.
I say this based on the numbers at Sports Club Stats. I don’t look at the declared “odds” for each team over-all. I look at the odds for each team at each specific point total. And if you look at each team’s odds for each of the possible final results from 51 to 54 points, that’s how it looks.
My own personal comfort level is 90% certainty. It’s reasonable to expect 54 points to be enough. I wouldn’t bet against 53, either. Your mileage may vary.