You heard it here first: 54 points will almost certainly be enough to make the playoffs in the West

  • Odds at 55 points: 98-99%.
  • Odds at 54 points: 90% or better.
  • Odds at 53 points: 75% or better.
  • Odds at 52 points: coin flip.
  • Odds at 51 points: 1:4, 1:5, around there. Possible, but not likely.

I say this based on the numbers at Sports Club Stats. I don’t look at the declared “odds” for each team over-all. I look at the odds for each team at each specific point total. And if you look at each team’s odds for each of the possible final results from 51 to 54 points, that’s how it looks.

My own personal comfort level is 90% certainty. It’s reasonable to expect 54 points to be enough. I wouldn’t bet against 53, either. Your mileage may vary.

 

  4 comments for “You heard it here first: 54 points will almost certainly be enough to make the playoffs in the West

  1. Kings of Hockeywood
    March 20, 2013 at 9:45 PM

    Are you going based on how many points 8th place will have or how many 9th place will have (because, as I know Quisp knows, the number *needed* to make the playoffs is actually just one more than whatever the 9th place team had)?

    • March 20, 2013 at 10:24 PM

      Neither, really — or both. I’m looking at point total x for team a and seeing how often (in the 10,000,000 daily simulations) x points is sufficient for team a to land in at worst 8th place. For example, Columbus makes the playoffs 90.9% of the time with 54 points. 9.1% of the time, they don’t. Then I look at the next point total down, 53. For Columbus, that’s good enough 73.8% of the time.

      For the purpose of this exercise, there are only two places in the standings: in the playoffs, and out.

      • Kings of Hockeywood
        March 21, 2013 at 12:44 AM

        Cool. Thank you for explaining the method!

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