Points-Blown & Season Series (2013)

Pre-post-season thoughts

  • The Kings finished ahead of San Jose in the standings for the first time since 2003, the end of the season in which Dean Lombardi was fired as Sharks GM.
  • The Kings were second in the conference in regulation wins, with 24, one win behind Chicago.
  • The Kings finished the season tied in points with Vancouver. Were the two teams in the same division, the Kings would have won the tie-breaker (ROWs). As it stands, Vancouver has the 3rd seed, the Kings 5th.
  • The Kings finished 7 points behind the Ducks, but only allowed 2 more points-against (see “PA” column in points-blown standings). That is, the Ducks and Kings were equivalently difficult for opposing teams to earn points against. The Ducks handed out more OT/SO points.
  • Compared to the previous season, the Ducks were the most improved team in the West (see “DIFF” column in points-blown standings), followed by the Hawks, Jackets, Wild, Kings, Oilers and Sharks.
  • Everyone else got worse.

 
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Kings vs. Western Conference

 
REC
PF
PA
DC
DIFF
GR
TB
2120
CGY3-0-060240LAK
STL3-0-060240LAK
EDM2-0-152-140LAK
CBJ3-0-060240LAK
ANA2-1-154010LAK
SJS2-1-154010LAK
PHX3-2-064200tie
MIN1-1-134-100tie
NAS1-1-134-100tie
DET1-2-024-200tie
CHI1-2-024-200tie
COL2-1-0432-10COL
DAL2-3-047-2-10DAL
VAN1-2-0251-40VAN
REC = Season Series vs. Opponent; PF = points-for; PA = points-against; DC = points that don’t count; DIFF = points-for minus points-against and points that don’t count; GR = games remaining; TB = tie-breaker goes to…

Points-Blown Standings (regular season final)

Q
NHL
div
 
W/L/OTL
W
L
OTW
OTL
SOW
SOL
PTS
ROW
GF
GA
GD
PT%
 
11-'12
diff
OSP%
321%
PB
PA
PD
2702703535555581020.31910191000.5630.5000.500
11C.136-7-525750657730155102530.8020.6160.1860.7400.708193542
22P.130-12-6231213636624140118220.6880.4880.2000.5940.618304323
34C.229-17-2201741516024129116130.6250.665-0.0400.5630.556364713
45P.227-16-5241611245925133118150.6150.5790.0350.5830.576374514
53N.126-15-720151156592112712160.6150.677-0.0620.5520.54937509
66P.325-16-717160384571712411680.5940.5850.0080.4790.51439543
77C.324-16-820162325562212411590.5830.622-0.0390.5310.52840524
88N.226-19-3191931425522123127-40.5730.4940.0790.5210.51441514
99C.424-17-714175354551912011910.5730.3960.1770.4900.4794158-3
1010P.421-18-9161813465117125131-60.5310.591-0.0600.4580.4654559-8
1111P.522-22-4182223214820130142-120.5000.543-0.0430.4480.4584856-8
1212N.319-22-7152224234517125134-90.4690.4510.0180.4060.4175162-17
1313N.419-25-4172521034219128160-320.4380.549-0.1110.4270.4105460-18
1414C.516-23-9112333264114111139-280.4270.634-0.2070.3750.3615569-28
1515N.516-25-7112535223914116152-360.4060.537-0.1300.3330.3475769-30

KEY

  • Q = my standings, default sorted by points-blown (explanation of points-blown here).
  • NHL = the official standings, via NHL.COM.
  • DIV = Divisional ranking. C is Central; N is Northwest; P is Pacific.
  • R/OT/SO = wins and losses in each of regulation, over-time, and shoot-out.
  • GR = games-remaining.
  • ROW = regulation plus OT (but not SO) wins. The first tie-breaker.
  • GD = goal-differential.
  • PT% = points-percentage.
  • ’11-’12 = final PT% from the previous season.
  • DIFF = the difference between this year’s and last year’s PT%.
  • OSP% = “old school points percentage” — PT% with 2 points awarded for a regulation or OT win, 1 point for SO win or loss, and 0 points for a loss in regulation or OT. In other words, no Bettman point, and games that are tied after OT are ties (no shoot-out).
  • 321% = winning % (actually % of possible points) if a team is awarded 3 points for a regulation win, 2 points for an OT or SO win, and 1 point for an OT or SO loss. (This is a system that many think should be used by the league. I like it expressed as a point-% because it penalizes teams for giving away loser points, e.g. a team that is 10-0 with all wins in regulation is at 1.000, but a team that is 10-0 with all wins in OT is at 0.667. This only seems fair, since we already have a system where a team that is 0-10 but loses every game in OT has a point-% of .500, but a team that is 0-10 with ten losses in regulation is 0.000.)
  • PRJ = projected point total for 48 games.
  • TO 54 = the record needed to get to the presumed (by me) playoff-threshold. I lowered the presumptive playoff threshold to 54 points, from 55.
  • PB = points-blown.
  • 8th+/- = the distance in points-blown above or below the 8th seed.
  • PA = Points-Against — how many points a team has allowed other teams to earn. A loss of any kind is 2 points-against. An OT or SO win is 1 point-against.
  • PD = Point-differential — Points a team has earned, minus points-against.
  • PA% = Points-against percentage — a team’s points-against divided by the sum total of points earned in the conference, i.e. your share of the damage.
 
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  • https://twitter.com/BobKnob2point0 Bob Knob

    quisp, if two teams had the same number of points blown, wouldn’t the one who had played more games be in a better spot? I think we should be 4th behind STL.

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      That was the way I default-sorted the chart originally. Currently, the default is sorted first by PB, then by ROW, then by GD. My rationale is that sorting by PB and then by GP ends up being pretty close to sorting by W%, so it’s always possible for anyone who wants to to sort that way if he/she wants to. But it’s NOT possible (as it is) to select how the chart sorts after the first sort; and I really like emphasizing ROW because it’s such a huge deal as the first tie-breaker.

      Another consideration is that points-blown is intended to be an antidote to the official standings, and the main way it does that is by ignoring games-played. I just think it’s better to ignore GP entirely. Especially since, as I said, you can already sort by W%.

      Maybe I should make a column for “ROWs-blown.” I’m kidding. I think I’m kidding.

  • USHA#17

    I see why you mentioned the OSP (on the main page). Clearly shows the rewards for not playing to win in regulation.

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  • http://twitter.com/BobKnob2point0 Bob Knob

    I see what you did there.

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  • http://www.facebook.com/ogreolson Thomas Olson

    The 321% isn’t showing?

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      Fixed. Thanks.

      • http://www.facebook.com/ogreolson Thomas Olson

        Thank you. That’s my favorite!

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  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=874845415 Neil Mattson

    So Quisp, we frequently hear the “100-point season” touted as an important benchmark of an elite team. As is, the Detroit Red Wings have had 7 consecutive 100-point seasons under coach Babcock, etc. What would be the relative mark in a 48-game schedule?

    • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=874845415 Neil Mattson

      or I can just do the math myself :)

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      100 points in an 82 game season requires a .610 pt-%. Over 48 games, that’s 59 points. One might want to adjust for the loser point, though. I have a metric that’s not in the chart right now which shows the pt-% in a world in which you get no points for an OT loss and all SOs are treated as ties. In other words, 2 points for a win in regulation or OT, 1 point for a SOW or SOL, and 0 points for a regulation or OT loss. The idea is to subtract the Bettman point and additionally to eliminate the randomness of the shoot-out.

      When you eliminate the Bettman point, the average PT% of all teams is (and must be) .500. With the Bettman point, the average PT% is higher; for example, today it’s .561. That is, .561 is the new .500.

      Factoring that in, the 100 point threshold (requiring .610), really ought to be a 113 point threshold (requiring .684). And that sounds about right to me. A team consistently achieving 113 points would be pretty f***ing dominant.

      Over 48 games, a .684 PT% would project to 66 points.

  • Kings of Hockeywood

    I think the Kings actually could still catch Anaheim for the Pacific crown. Both teams have 10 games remaining. The Kings sit 8 points back. They play each other twice. If the Kings win both games between them they only have to make up 4 points in 8 games. The Kings’ other 8 games are against Colorado, Columbus, Dallas, and San Jose at home and in Dallas, San Jose, Minnesota, and Detroit. The Ducks’ other 8 are at home to Edmonton, Colorado, Columbus, and Phoenix and in Calgary, Vancouver, and twice in Edmonton. The Kings already have the edge in ROWs and would have won the season series by taking those two games, so they would win all tie-breakers and thus really do just have to make up 4 more points to win the division. It will be difficult and they need some help, but it’s not completely out of the question that they win the division and get the 2nd seed at this point.

    • http://web.me.com/kakitadoug/geekblog/Blog/Blog.html DougS

      A regulation win tonight, and I’d say it becomes thinkable. Home ice would be nice to have in the playoffs this season, since the Kings have been playing so well at Staples. Unlike the last few seasons, the split between home and road has been fairly pronounced.

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  • Kings of Hockeywood

    Quisp, the Kings did not lose the season series with Colorado. The Kings got 4 points. Colorado got 3. The Kings just would have lost the tie-breaker if they had finished the season tied (now impossible).

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      I think we’re saying the same thing. They lost the season series tie-breaker because the first game they played against the Avs — a win — doesn’t count according to the tie-breaker rules. So even though the Kings won twice and lost once, the point-differential is -1. Thus, COL wins the season series tie-breaker.

  • http://twitter.com/BobKnob2point0 Bob Knob

    Quisp, a usability suggestion for you.

    Don’t force the user to open a link in a new browser window/tab (when clicking on points blown link for instance). It’s annoying.

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      Why is it annoying? I only set it up that way because that’s how I like to do it. I rack up the tabs and then close them (command-W). You prefer just to proceed through a single tab?

      • http://twitter.com/geoffdes78 Geoff DeSouza

        I think most people who want to run with new tabs are fine with doing it manually by holding CTRL.

        • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

          I (think I) just changed the settings. Tell me if new tabs are still popping up anywhere.

      • http://twitter.com/BobKnob2point0 Bob Knob

        I can open links in new tabs myself. I usually do so which is why I never noticed it until recently when that’s the only thing I came here for.

        • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

          Then I think I need more features that you would want to come here for.

  • http://www.facebook.com/don.bright1 Don Bright

    While it probably won’t happen, if the Wild, Blues and Sharks all win out (they do not play each other so it could happen), and Kings lose their last three, why/how wouldn’t they all finish ahead of the Kings, thus the Kings get the 7th seed? Just not understanding how Kings have clinched at least the 6th seed.

    • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

      The Wild have 51 points. The Kings have 57. The Wild win all remaining games and the Kings lose all, and the two teams end up tied at 57. In which case, the Kings win the tie-breaker, which is ROWs.

      • http://www.facebook.com/don.bright1 Don Bright

        But wouldn’t the Wild have more overall wins 27 to 26, that’s not the first tie-breaker, then ROW?

        • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

          There is no over-all wins tie-breaker. They replaced “wins” as a tie-breaker with “ROWs” (regulation wins plus OT wins, excluding SO wins) a few years back.

          • http://www.facebook.com/don.bright1 Don Bright

            OK, seems silly to have done that as one team in a way could have a decent amount of overall wins more, yet finish below a team they are tied with in points. Such is the Bettman point I guess.

            • http://www.mcsorleys-stick.com/ Quisp

              They did it because everyone pretty much agrees a team that wins games in regulation or OT (i.e. playing hockey) is better than a team that depends on the shoot-out (i.e. a skills competition).

              • http://www.facebook.com/don.bright1 Don Bright

                I understand that, however I think the tie breaker should go, overall wins, then ROW wins, just seems more right to me anyway.